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Irrationally far-in-advance bookings: an increasingly general trend

I'm noticing a phenomenon that started with restaurants, particularly ones with a lot of "media hype" around them, but seems to be migrating to all walks of life. It's the trend for everything to require booking weeks or even months in advance. In the past, it used to be that you could have a reasonable expectation of being able to just turn up to many things, be they restaurants, art galleries, major sights, or just about anything else, and get in, at least if you timed things reasonably intelligently. In the worst cases a week's advance booking usually was plenty. No longer.

The "system" has got to the point in a lot of areas wherein you may have to book for anything 3 months, even a year in advance, to have any chance. This is an irrational situation, in my view. It makes an absurdity of any kind of reasonable planning, obviously eliminates even the possibility of sponteneity, makes no allowances for contigencies (illness, accident, transport difficulties, or anything else), and essentially requires that you lead a completely fixed life with absolutely planned daily schedules and utterly regular patterns, extending years into the future. I very much doubt if more than a tiny fraction of people have that sort of predictability, and even fewer probably want it.

That this problem is occurring suggests a serious failing in organisations' ability to cope with volume of demand, and it would seem, lack of originality in coming up with creative solutions that permit reasonable flexibility. Can anyone suggest any reasons why 1) volume of demand for *anything* has leapt to such a disproportionate extent; 2) places (but particularly restaurants in a Chow context) don't seem to be able to find the imagination to come up with reasonable solutions? (It will be noted that while of course, for some, cynical market manipulation is probably a factor, I don't believe this is the only - or even the prevailing - reason for the problem).

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  1. ...the reason...

    try 'the Internet' - there are now companies who book up every available reservation at popular places and, for a fee, will sell their reservation to you.

    some places use the non-refundable fee for a reservation. that doesn't sit well with 'normal' people.

    the successful 'we booked 'em full' companies put down the fee. it's not like they're likely to have to cancel, and if they do, they've made more than enough money on the other thousands of reservations sales to 'cover' the loss.

    2 Replies
    1. re: PSRaT

      In addition to the "we're so hip and cool and exclusive and everyone who's anyone wants to eat here that you are required to book 3-6 months in advance, and then we require you to confirm by Email 3x, by Voice Mail 2x, and on the phone at least once (if you can even reach a live person) and then you are required to show up an hour before your reservation so we can confirm that you're even allowed to dine here and even then, if celebrities walk in, your reservation is toast" syndrome.

      1. re: PSRaT

        This is the worst with event tickets - specifically for concerts. No more the days when a committed fan could wait in line for hours to be first in line - those companies buy up the tickets in bulk and then resell them.

      2. I think it's as much as anything about the fact that dining in some restaurants has become a major event, rather than a way to consume dinner. People buy theatre and concert tickets weeks and months in advance and then plan around those things, and the experience at a lot of high end restaurants is meant to rival those experiences in specialness, rather than being something you just do because it's Friday and it's date night, and there's nothing playing at Cineplex that you want to see.

        Think about the stories you hear about entire concert tours for major artists selling out in 10 minutes, months and months in advance -- that might be 20K fans per venue for arena tours, which means in 2 nights, about as many people see Beyonce as can dine at French Laundry in a year. I think Beyonce seems like it would be a fun time, but I'd way rather have dinner at the French Laundry.

        There are restaurants who are trying different solutions -- only opening reservations a month in advance at a set time, selling tickets at varying pricing levels to even out demand, holding what amounts to lotteries for the seats, opening more restaurants, just demanding ever increasing prices until they find out exactly how much the market will bear. But those all have drawbacks, too.

        There isn't really a perfect solution to 'more people want to be in our restaurant than we can possibly serve.' Most of the ones that have been tried either inconvenience people or cost them more money, and those are really the only additional barriers a restaurant has available to tamp demand down a little.

        7 Replies
        1. re: Jacquilynne

          Interesting. The "dinner-as-event" does seem to be a new phenomenon. In the past, when people wanted a "dinner event", they threw a party and invited others. Is this a reflection of social atomisation?

          It should be said too, that the capitulatory option of taking no bookings at all creates a different irrational situation: instead of irrationally far in advance bookings, you're faced with irrational waits (over 2 hours, possibly more).

          However, there *are* other potential solutions to the bookings problem. Of course as you suggest the "pure capitalist" solution is simply to bump the prices up until people squeal. But here are a pair of less-risky models:

          1: Block release. Simply make 1/4 of your available bookings open a month (or more) before, release 1/4 more with a week to go, 1/4 more with a day to go, and have 1/4 seats available for people walking in. This spreads the booking frenzy out. Notice that because people know new windows are going to open, they won't be that panicked about calling at the first possible moment, because they know it's not really a crisis if they miss. And furthermore this allows the people with really fixed times, who need to get in at a certain time, on a certain day, appropriate priority, because they *will* be the ones who call first, rather than chancing it until later. And you can always take your chances with showing up on spec, so even if all bookings are taken, hope is not yet lost. Obviously the system can be tweaked using various ratios and release schedules.

          2: Dutch Auction. The method of a Dutch auction is actually very clever. You start the booking availability on Day X. But booking isn't free, if you call at the first available moment. No, it costs, probably a significant amount. With each successive day that passes, the price of a booking drops, until, on the day of the booking itself, it's free. So again, people will follow different, independent strategies to maximise what to them is their probability-of-getting-a-table vs. cost tradeoff. And of course the establishment wins, because the costs of running the system are paid off simply through the process itself.

          Both systems have the advantage of appearing reasonably fair to the participants, not requiring too much effort on anyone's part, and critically, spreading the booking load out over the whole period, so you don't get either Harters' annoying panic-when-the-phones-open problem or the equally annoying queueing-for-hours problem.

          1. re: AlexRast

            I think I like the first best and I believe I have seen variants where restaurants keep some solace back for walk-ins. I like it as it gives disorganised people like me a shot at a table (I also don't mind the bar).

            Alinea in Chicago has they "ticket" system which I think works at the hyper popular places. You buy the ticket in advance based on the menu price, you then pay for booze etc on the day. The price also varies by time and date so if you want to eat at 6:00 it's cheaper than 8:00. You can then "trade" your reservation if you can't make it, and the restaurant has a site to do this. They open the reservation line (I think) 60 days in advance for the day.

            I quite like it as a system as it means you need to be serious and it deters multiple bookings as you need pay in full when you book and it didn't seem too tricky to score a reservation.

            1. re: AlexRast

              I'm not sure that I agree that allowing people to walk in to a restaurant that other people made a reservation for a month in advance is somehow a better model. Perhaps it spreads the opportunity around a little more to people with less set schedules, but it reduces the opportunities for people who truly are willing to prioritize the experience in their lives. If I'm willing to commit to attending the restaurant a month in advance, and will re-arrange my life to make that possible, and you aren't, why should the system attempt to satisfy you? My money is as the same as yours, and I'm apparently more dedicated to attending the restaurant (or just have a less chaotic life, I suppose).

              Mostly, though, it seems like that just ups the number of days when people have to pound the phone lines hoping to get in.

              Dutch auctions would be a fun pricing model, but I suspect people would get awfully angsty about the price variations. But wouldn't that just mean all reservations go to the people with the most money to blow? A 1% solution isn't very populist. It is possibly fairer, though, because it does privilege the people who are most dedicated (financially) to going to the restaurant.

              (Please note: I do not necessarily take this issue as seriously as this post might suggest. It is merely a great deal more entertaining than my law school homework. It also happening in the middle of my law school homework, which might possibly be having an effect on the tone.)

              1. re: Jacquilynne

                Maybe from the restaurant's point of view or, perhaps, the server's ... the "most dedicated" doesn't necessarily denote the best customer!

                Many people still prize spontaneity, and some of the most wonderful and fascinating people I know can't (or won't?) plan their way out of a paper bag, even if they make fantastic art or conversation, and have excellent palates.

                Planning does not equate to appreciation.

                1. re: Torina

                  Clearly what is required is admissions essays.

                  1. re: Jacquilynne

                    I think I wrote one when I scored a reservation at El Bulli....!

                    1. re: Jacquilynne

                      Ha! I think you miss my point ... which is that a bit of chance can lead to serendipity.

            2. Alex I agree its an odd phenomena but that said it is still relatively constrained and in some respects balanced by the rise of the no booking restaurant. There area definitely a few restaurants in any city/country that do book out far in advance but I maintain is a relatively finite list.

              I am pretty confident I will get an excellent selection of restaurants in London, San Francisco, Paris, Hong Kong or Sydney with a months notice, and a pretty good selection with two weeks notice. That said I will probably miss out on the hot table of the moment in each of these cities. In the past I had a severe case of FOMO and would even reconsider trips if I couldn't get a certain reservation.

              But I think my have been cured by a number of rather disappointing meals at these sorts of places, and more enjoyable meals at less elite places.

              I tend to read the frothing at the mouth reviews from bloggers and some esteemed critics with a bit more cynicism now. But I think what drives it is Fashion. Fashion victims used tone exclusively clothes focussed but with so much press about everything and so much more information so easily available, I would argue that the "fashion disease" has spread. It seems people are define by their experiences, in the past your clothes helped define your tribe. Now its everything - "you are what you eat" has a whole new meaning.

              1. On the other hand, there are those mega-popular places that do not permit booking months in advance, perhaps limiting it to a few weeks. I celebrate my 65th birthday in 11 months. There are places where I'd like to book now to guarantee that's where I'll be eating on the day but, no, I might have to wait another 8 months before I can even try - risking disappointment if I miss the day, or even hour, when reservations open for that day. So, I won't be going to any of those world class places. And, yes, I find it very peeving.

                1. I routinely book fishing trips 6-8 months in advance around the moon phases, so I know on 4/21/2015 I'm going fishing or to the French Laundry or whatever. Works for me.

                  1. why would it be in the best interest of the restaurant to fart around with another system when this one is working for them?

                    as long as a restaurant fills their available capacity in a way that works for THEM, that's what counts.

                    your speculation/opinion about what is "rational" is not at all important while there is EMPIRICAL evidence that THEIR idea actually works.

                    the "failing" that you describe with such gravitas, isn't preventing them from filling their seats so to think that this is a "serious" failing, i guess means that it is "serious to you" but isn't serious to enough to their customers to cause them to refrain from filling these seats year after year.

                    i just don't see the problem.

                    10 Replies
                    1. re: westsidegal

                      I believe a common problem for those that have long lead times in no shows. As a result some have credit cards deposits, some have reconfirmation requirements etc etc. And not only can no-shows mean an economic hit but the admin overhead of managing reservations is costly.

                      The associated downside is that the perception becomes is that it's booked years in advance so why bother. I am aware of a few places with this image but are usually quite easy reservations, but as a result they can miss out on passing reservations.

                      1. re: PhilD

                        I've no problem with non-returnable credit card deposits. It demonstrates committment from the diner in return for an early booking. The oddest system I've come across was Il Pagliaccio in Rome about 5 years back. Whilst it allowed payment in the restaurant via credit card, to reserve the deposit had to be paid through Paypal (website now has no mention of Paypal.)

                        1. re: Harters

                          I can shed some light into the PayPal non-refundable deposit thing . . .

                          using PayPal, with the proper documentation - typically email via the PP site, the merchant can make the 'non-refundable' bit stick. and, there are types of payments/transfers PP tells you right up front: no possible reversal.

                          we have taken (expensive) special orders and required a non-refundable deposit - because if the customer didn't buy it, the next customer looking for the same thing is measured in light years away....

                          Visa/MasterCard aka EuroCard - the merchant has near zero success to make it stick. the customer complains and complains and complains and eventually they get their "non-refundable" deposit refunded. the merchant gets shafted first on the credit card fees and then second with money spent / tied up in goods that may never sell, and then third on (big) fees for the dispute process.

                        2. re: PhilD

                          apparently, this "common problem" about which you speculate,
                          in fact, is not so problematic that the restaurants choose to change their policy.

                          this policy, if it didn't work, could be changed in a moment.
                          there is a reason that the restaurants that adhere to the policy year in and year out choose to do so.

                          1. re: westsidegal

                            Wouldn't the rise in no reservation, limited booking windows, credit card deposits etc indicate this is happening....? The 60 or 90 day booking window with a credit card number seems to be becoming the norm for many of the really hard to book places these days.

                            1. re: PhilD

                              no.
                              it is not a problem for the restaurant despite your desire to cast it as such

                              1. re: westsidegal

                                So why do so many successful restaurateurs say it is when interviewed...?

                                1. re: PhilD

                                  look at their ACTIONS.

                                  they can change their policies if they weren't working.
                                  they are, in no way. married to these policies.

                                  the fact that they stick to the same policies year in and year out is the ultimate evidence.

                                  1. re: westsidegal

                                    Its probably explained by "game theory" a sort of reverse Prisoners Dilemma.

                                    The rational business would change the policy but free businesses are rationale. If every business changed then everyone would benefit. But if you are the first to change you may fear your computers would benefit so you don't and they don't for the same reason.

                                    Sticking to the same policies year after year isn't evidence they work its simply evidence they have not changed. It may be inertia caused by an irrational fear of competitive (in)action.

                                    The restaurateurs that moan about lots of no shows from early reservations could solve it by taking deposits etc. Few do because of their irrational fears of moving first and losing customers to those that don't follow the lead.

                                    Business Psychology and Behavioural Economics are fascinating subjects - few decisions are rational.

                                    1. re: PhilD

                                      true or not,
                                      all we really know about this one is that it is not rational TO YOU.

                                      and that to the owners, it is rational enough to continue the way they have.

                      2. I simply put those restaurants (along with the No Reservations kind) in the category of Ignore Their Existence and move on. It's extremely hostile to hospitality, and I figure any business in the hospitality business that's that hostile to hospitality is not worth bothering with, no matter how glorious the food or experience once there.

                        2 Replies
                        1. re: Karl S

                          Many of these restaurants are part of a travel itinerary, so people will make it a focus of their visit and, therefore, need the certainty of a confirmed reservation well in advance. They're also special occasion destinations or "once in a great while" spots. There aren't a lot of places that are on anyone's regular rotation that book up that heavily in advance. On the other hand, there are enough places that don't take any reservations at all that cause all sorts of other problems.

                          1. re: Karl S

                            "I simply put those restaurants (along with the No Reservations kind) in the category of Ignore Their Existence and move on....."

                            heehee. I like the approach, but there really are other factors.

                            aside from 'the social scene' eateries typically get known for good food. some of them,,, weirder good food than others but....

                            and yes indeed a 'famous' chef from X opens an eatery somewhere else and the 'reputation' transfers, with or without justification of the new joint's food.

                            we don't worry so much with the 'social scene' - if you saw me, you wouldn't know me anyway - and we really don't get such a kick out of being on the other side of the street from some celebrity out walking their dog. it's a non-thing.

                            folks hanging around here likely enjoy tasty food and enjoy cooking. it's a built in audience for the 'where to eat' discussion.

                            in our travels/vacations/special events we have made an effort to try some of the known places. some places were 'an experience' - some just had really good food - and one was a serious disappointment.

                            getting into these places can be a trick. more than once we've opted for Door #2 or 3, or 4 because we couldn't get into Door #1. which is not a big issue, we did get to eat that night, and survived to eat again.....and frankly My Deer, don't give a rat's pa-tut that we didn't get into Door #1.

                          2. Perception becomes reality, or at least that is the current trend. Why is there a velvet rope and a line a mile long outside a club that is 3/4 empty on the inside?

                            If you create an air of exclusivity it makes people want to be a part of it.

                            I have a good friend who is a Realtor, been selling real estate his whole life 40+ years. One day we were in the city having drinks and he said, let's go to that Peter Luger place you talk about all the time. I laughed a bit and told him, you can't walk in there without reservations, you need to book 4-6 weeks in advance. He looked at me and laughed, and bet me $100. we would walk in and eat dinner there that night. We shook and off to Brooklyn we were. I stood at the bar and watched him go to the host's desk, and what I watched was nothing less than 50% pure salesmanship combined with 50% pure bullshit. After what could be called nothing less than a 10 minute "heated" conversation with the host, I was prepared to collect my $100. and move on. My friend walked up to the bar and said to me; "our table will be ready shortly". After about a 20-30 minute wait (Peter Luger standard wait even with reservations) we were seated. Great memory. (I graciously paid my $100. which he then used to pay for his half of dinner, since he didn't have any cash on him and Peter Luger doesn't accept credit cards. lol)

                            3 Replies
                            1. re: jrvedivici

                              and I'm the other way -- the whole "go there to be seen" and "it's the new hottest place" just serve to keep me a long, long way away.

                              Maybe a special anniversary at the place where you got engaged, or closing the big Corporate Inc contract, but for day-to-day dining, I just refuse to jump through hoops to give someone my money.

                              1. re: sunshine842

                                Yup - see my "you're toast syndrome" upthread.

                                1. re: sunshine842

                                  Funny I spent most of my 30's seeking that attention, to be "that guy". Trust me I've had a lot of fun, but nothing about that type of lifestyle appeals to me anymore. Give me a quiet dark corner of the bar, let me sit and eat, drink, in peace and I'll call it a night. The fewer people who recognize me or acknowledge me the better.

                              2. Interestingly, Andrew Zimmern did a podcast on this a few weeks back.

                                To paraphrase, his point was that if he were to open up a new restaurants anytime soon, he wouldn't accept reservations.

                                This would help draw bar business and help fill the restaurant at off-peak times. People wouldn't be more willing to eat early if they knew it meant avoid a wait.

                                That said, there are very few French Laundry, Per Ses, Alinea and Next's out there which require months reservations in advance to get a table. I would be willing to bet in almost any major US city, I could get you a table at either a Michelin starred or Zagat 27+ restaurant for this Saturday night.

                                4 Replies
                                1. re: DukeFan

                                  "I would be willing to bet in almost any major US city, I could get you a table at either a Michelin starred or Zagat 27+ restaurant for this Saturday night."

                                  If you're treating then I'll take that bet!! NY please!!

                                  1. re: jrvedivici

                                    not paying, but my gift to you is the knowledge of availability.

                                    I just did a quick check and found a table at

                                    aquavit
                                    hakkasan
                                    telepan

                                    I am sure there are others, but I think this proves my point.

                                  2. re: DukeFan

                                    Most new hot/hipster/hyped places in Toronto do not accept reservations and do just fine. They're not the high end ones so much, though.
                                    When Momofuku first came here, they told one chowhound the day before (or day of) their long awaited reservation that they would not be able to accommodate an allergy. An allergy that the person had put on the Opentable form when they made the reservation. A reservation that had then been confirmed. Then finally, a snotty last-minute voice mail that no, they shouldn't eat there after all...?!?!?! Surely, the reservation system should benefit both sides.
                                    I've missed a gallery special exhibit time slot because I was sick and exhausted and slept in. I now refuse to book those in advance. Exhibits are not shows, they do not have start times, and they are not so busy here that I can't be spontaneous. I am about to buy tickets for a Disney on Ice show that is in March, however. Not much choice about that one. Kids' birthday party venues book about 2 months in advance here. For the really popular, inexpensive city-run place I book 4 months in advance when reservations open.

                                    1. re: DukeFan

                                      i once dated a guy who also, could get those tables without the usual advance notice.

                                      we'd walk in anywhere (other than gjelina) and get a good table with or without any advance notice.

                                      of course, he always had a couple of larger bills in his hand when starting the discussion at the host/hostess table AND he was a "GOOD" regular at most of those restaurants.