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French Laundry reservations

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Hello! I'm not too much of an expert and I assumed you guys would probably be the people to ask!

So my birthday is on March 14...and I'm on the waitlist and everything for that day at TFL. Been trying since a month ago. However, I've been checking opentable also just in case....what is the probability that I will be able to get a table for 3 or 4 if someone cancels?

I already have a reservation at Bardessono Hotel and a driver so I can do wine tasting. It's going to be my 21st birthday so my mom only wants it on March 14, but I think it's giving us more anxiety and stress than necessary because we're still unsure whether we'll get the reservations or not =(

So basically, my main question is what is the probability that I will be able to get a table for 3 or 4 if someone cancels?
Do people usually cancel 3 days prior?

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  1. I wouldn't keep my hopes up too much. If/When people cancel, it is often at the last minute - not three days before...

    1 Reply
    1. re: CarrieWas218

      Opentable currently shows openings for tomorrow, Wednesday, and Thursday, presumably those are recent cancellations.

    2. I would check OpenTable every hour every day for last minute cancellations. I obtained a weekend dinner reservation that way... perhaps the odds may be a bit better for a Thursday seating. Tables won't really appear until the week of your birthday, but I'd definitely have a plan B restaurant reservation as well. Have your hotel's concierge check too. Sometimes they can pull some special strings.

      It's Mon 2/25 and I see a Sun, 3/2 7:30pm as of right now, which is a prime seating I'd say. So there are definitely cancellations as days go by.

      1 Reply
      1. re: Keesey

        If they're already on the waiting list, if there is a cancellation, TFL should offer it to them before putting it on Opentable.

      2. I'd write FL a note.

        1. Thank you for the tips everyone! So I'm going to do a back-up restaurant just in case, what do you guys recommend?

          4 Replies
          1. re: sparkerly

            Redd in Yountville.

            1. re: sparkerly

              Drop the wine tasting and go to Saison or Manresa.

              1. re: Robert Lauriston

                I know! I rather go to Saison at this point of uncertainty....but mom is keen on Napa unfortunately.

              2. re: sparkerly

                Meadowood - very comparable to FL in their tasting menu in form, substance, and price.

                Plus you will get an outstanding view.