Top Chef: predictions (no leaks or post-Chicago spoilers)
My guesses on the remaining episodes:
13: Lisa out: it's been her good luck that somebody else was always a bit worse, and there are no other weak links left.
14: Barring a major stroke of luck, Antonia out.
finale: Stephanie vs. Richard ... tough call. Seems like Richard has stronger leadership skills, so the more assistants they have, the more likely he'll win.
Though I'd rather eat at Stephanie's restaurant.
Robert Lauriston
May 30, 2008 12:07PM
Agree on Richard, Antonia and Stephanie as the final three, I would have loved to be able to have tasted the rib eye and side dish Antonia presented this week. These three also have exhibited the most professionalism, they each seem to be good leaders, skilled, collaborative, and calmly in control.
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What is the format, so to speak, in the remaining episodes? Two contestants get sent home and then it's down to the final two?
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My understanding is that they do one more normal episode, then in the finale, one person gets sent home after the quickfire, and the final 2 are decided in an EC.
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Last season they eliminated two in one episode, but this year theyre going back to normal format. They like to keep us on our toes! Lisa BETTER go home...
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All the online TV Guide says about the 6/4 episode is that all 4 travel to Puerto Rico to square off for the "final 3 spots". Guest judge is Chef Wilo Benet. The 6/11 write-up says just that it's the final chopping block. So same as last year - there are three that end up in the finale.
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I think that Stephanie's nerves or Richard's flair will do them in. Slow and steady wins the race (whether we like it or not). I'd bet one of them is out and Antonia and the other make the finale. Lisa may pull a Dale (last season's) and come back enough to get into play although I hope not.
Much as I would like to see Steph and Richard, I'd be surprised if it happens.
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Am I the only one who really loves Antonia? I think she's got the confidence, the maturity, and the skill, when she stays true to herself. Richard bugs me....that hair....I can't get over it.
I'd love to see Antonia and Stephanie in the final. I think Stephanie just needs to trust herself a little more.
And Lisa.....poor Lisa, I'm sure she has no idea how awful she looks when she's pissed off. It's not a pretty picture at all. Her attitude just sucks. Did anyone notice how short she cut her hair for the next segment though? Perhaps it's a symbolic gesture of a new leaf being turned (in her attitude)
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I enjoy Antonia as well. Some folks don't like her somewhat snarky remarks towards the other contestants, but they're more or less the same things that I would think in her situation. 2 doods in a bubble bath? It DID look like a cheap porno ^_^
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Maybe her snark is why I like her...I think her comments are totally funny and harmless though, not like the vitriol tossed around by the likes of Dale and Lisa.
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I'm sure she has no idea how awful she looks when she's pissed off.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Which is like ........ALL the time.
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that hair....I can't get over it.
Lot's of reasons to dislike a chef, personal grooming might not be one of the worse
:-)
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I agree completly with your assesment.
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I was just at Bravo's website, and saw the "Contestant bio" square in the lower left-hand corner, and it was Hung from TC3. I was surprised to see that he had only won 2 Elimination Challenges (but 4 QFs). So I decided to go to Wikipedia to see how each winner (and runner-up) had done as well as those who had the *most* QF and Elimination Challenge wins. Interesting!
***TC1***
(Winner) – Harold: 2 QF, 2 Elimination (includes finale win, so only 1 before winning the whole shebang - which is ultimately, what counts <g>)
(Runner-up) – Tiffani: 1 QF, 2 Elimination
(Most QF) – Lee Anne: 3
(Most Elim) – Dave: 3
***TC2***
(Winner) – Ilan : 1 QF (team shared), 3 Elimination (includes finale win)
(Runner-up) – Marcel: 2 QF (1 shared w/Sam), 1 Elimination
(Most QF) – Sam: 5 QF (2 shared – team and with Marcel), 1 Elimination
(Most Elim) – Ilan: 3 – But before finale win, he was tied with Elia and Betty - all had 2 Elim wins
***TC3***
(Winner) – Hung: 4 QF (1 team shared), 2 Elimination (includes finale win)
(Runner-up #1) – Dale: 1 QF, 1 Elimination
(Runner-up #2) – Casey: 3 QF, 2 Elimination
(Most QF) – Hung: 4 QF (1 team shared)
(Most Elim) – Tre: 3 (and he won all three before half of the show was done and he was kicked off for the head shaving incident)
***TC4 – so far***
(Most QF) – Antonia: 4
(Most Elim) – Stephanie: 5 (1 team shared and it was technically Richard's win, but he gave it to Stephanie for her bride's cake in Wedding Wars)
So those that haven't won a lot of QF or Elim challenges (Harold & Tiffani/Season 1; Dale, Season 3) can still get into the finale by either squeaking by or being in the middle. Which we knew, but I found it interesting to compare all 4 seasons.
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Correction: Tre was not thrown off for the "head shaving incident" (which occurred in Season 2). IIRC, Tre took the hit for his team in Restaurant Wars.
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My bad. I was mistaking him for Cliff - who *was* tossed out for the head-shaving incident in Season 2. Sorry about that.
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At that point, Cliff wasn't going to make it anyway - the judges even said that they probably would have eliminated him (the tasting had been done, but judges' table hadn't happened yet).
The Wikipedia pages for each season show who was in the top and bottom groups each week. This gives some additional info than just wins.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Top_Chef_%28season_1%29#Contestant_Progress
Harold and Tiffany tied for most top 3s (5 apiece). Stephen did well, also getting 5, though he never won. Dave's 3 wins were his only top group appearances.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Top_Chef_%28season_2%29#Contestant_Progress
Ilan was the "weakest" winner, with just 3 appearances in the top group (winning twice) before winning in the finale. The best performer not to make it near the end was (a bit of a surprise to me) Betty, in the high group 6 times in 9 episodes. She was high variance, though, falling in the bottom all 3 of her other episodes.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Top_Chef...
Hung had 6 top groups, not including the finale. As mentioned, Tre was doing pretty well, "in the lead" before getting knocked out.
Note that there's a survivor bias with these top/bottom metrics. And towards the end, there's no middle so you're either always on top (Casey, when she caught fire near the end), or always on bottom (Brian, squeaking by in the losers' bracket a few weeks in a row).
I'm not sure how useful quickfires are, since the parameters are sometimes pretty unusual, and Wikipedia doesn't have top/bottom group info (someone started recording it this season, though it's not in the summary table). The only overall winner who did noticeably well was Hung - Antonia is doing similarly well this season, with Richard not far behind.
Okay, so here are this season's remaining contestants.
High groups/low groups
Stephanie: 9/3
Antonia: 7/3
Richard: 6/1
Lisa: 2/5
If we try high-low, they're ranked Stephanie, Richard, Antonia, then Lisa (with a balance of -3). The ratio favors Richard (only in the bottom once), followed by Stephanie, then Antonia, then Lisa (with a high:low ratio of 0.4). Basically, three contestants are roughly even - I'd give Richard the edge, with Lisa way behind. It's also kind of obvious that Andrew and Dale were performing very well before bowing out, and Spike was doing quite poorly.
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Imo, Richard's weak spot is that he always plays it safe. It worked for him all this time, especially in restaurant wars, but I don't think it will be enough to win the race. I'm really curious if he will step up and takes some risks or just keep it safe.
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really? he may not be my absolute favorite but i don't think he plays it safe. he's created lots of dishes no one's seen before.
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Yeah, I'd say the opposite, that he's usually the one taking the biggest chances. And he pulls them off.
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I don't recall him taking any chances at any point. He does tried and true dishes and combinations, and does them very well, but there are no surprises. Nothing like the peanutbutter mashed potatoes that another contestant did, that flew in the face of conventional wisdom yet came off well.
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Smoked Salmon with Faux Caviar & White Chocolate Wasabi Sauce??
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also... peach tallegio pizza with sweet tea sauce? tofu in beef fat? even the hamachi and sweetbreads dish?
not safe in my book. although i agree that PB mashed potatoes weren't either. but they actually sounded interesting to me. in that same west african way that i thought steph's couscous dish could've worked if executed/seasoned properly. especially if they were NON-sweetened natural PB.
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I think even Tom C. made the comment to him during the steakhouse challenge that he was surprised he played it so straight and didn't do anything unusual this time, didn't he?
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"Tried and true combinations"? You sure you're thinking of Richard "Finhair" Blais?
"Vitello Tramonto": Hamachi, Crispy Sweetbreads, Radish & Yuzu
Banana “Scallops” with Banana Guacamole & Chocolate Ice Cream
Grilled Tuna Burrito with Quinoa, Beans, Avocado, Mango & Cucumber Salad
Tofu Steak Marinated in Beef Fat with Green Curry
Smoked Salmon with Faux Caviar & White Chocolate Wasabi Sauce
Chicken Soup with Chicken, Apples, Apple Cider, Eucalyptus, Butter
Peach Taleggio Pizza with Sweet Tea Sauce
Recipes:
http://recipes.mt.bravotv.com/search/...
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Nice list, RL ! I spent 15 minutes trying to find all that and gave up.
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You and me both. I've just discovered, however, when I came back here to post about the Banana "Scallops" and the Vegetarian Tacos using jicama for the wrap that if you click the Recipes, and then the "tag" for Richard, all of the recipes he was involved in will be listed, as RL just linked.
Takes me awhile, but I eventually figure it out. ;-)
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Thnaks. I tried "Blais" and it didn't work. Silly me. I like that function, tho.
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Alright, alright, you convinced me. He dialed it down in the last few episodes though. He is a smart guy, letting others sabotaging themselves taking too many risks like Dale with the butterscotch scallops.
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In episode 12, his appetizer was hamachi, sweetbreads, radish, and yuzu. That's pretty out there for a steakhouse.
In episode 11, he served seared bananas and chocolate ice cream with "banana guacamole" made of:
2 bananas, mashed
1/2 cup tarragon, cilantro, basil, chopped
1 cup lime, chili, ginger syrup
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What's interesting with Richard, even when he dials it down... he's still creating new dishes on the spot for the elimination challenges...
Which is impressive, but since they are "new" dishes he puts himself at risk for a big miss and potential elimination.
Antonia on the other hand, as mentioned previously, is slow and study which to me means she just cooks what she's done before and not really going out on the limb.
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I agree. Richard has gone way out there a few times and the whole commentary from Tom about playing it safe was just Tom messin with Richards mind. It doesn't take much when your under pressure but Richard did not sway and knocked it out.
Richard, Stephanie and Antonia all have skills.
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I think (regardless of how this season ends), Richard is the most talented chef out of all 4 seasons
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my family said he was fabulously sweet and great to talk to at his atlanta restaurant 2 weeks ago too. talking about friends from the show and his coming baby and such - he apparently is good friends with dale. and the food was good (per their reports)!
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So he DID go home and make a "little Blais"......
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he did. :)
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I would have to agree with that. I would absolutly eat at his place.
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<I think (regardless of how this season ends), Richard is the most talented chef out of all 4 seasons>
Perhaps that's how it appears, but I think it's impossible to compare the chefs from season to season. Our expectations have increased with each successive season, and the assignments were not consistent. Plus, based on the remainder of the talent, some chefs may not come off as talented as they really are, while others come across as moreso. You can't really assess that without eating their food. Looks can be deceiving!
(Edited to say that I do think Richard is extremely talented and innovative. I would love to dine at his place.)
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agreed. nimma may be fabulous - really hard to say on reality tv.
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well, pretty much every contestant that's been booted off this season has said the same. his resume is also crazy impressive
fwiw, he is one of the oldest contestants that has competed, so he has the advantage of having worked at a lot of different places
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oh i think richard is fabulously talented. i just think others might be too and not come across that way. i know that reality tv is definitely not accurate across the board. :)
my guess is that manuel is more talented than he appeared in this. and likely others in this and other seasons. probably lisa and spike have good points as well - not that i can see them at this point!
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reading about manuel at Babbo in Heat was hilarious
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Richard is one of the oldest? He's 35, and that's pretty average aged for a lot of the cheftestants.
From Season 3: Tre - 30, Brian - 34, CJ - 31, Dale - 34, Howie - 31, Micah - 33, Sandee - 39, Sara M - 34
From Season 2: Otto - 46, Carlos - 36, Josie - 31, Frank - 39, Emily - 31, Mia - 32, Betty - 44
From Season 1: Cynthia - 52, Dave Martin - 40, Andrea - 37, Ken - 34, Lisa - 45, Brian - 37.
So I'd say Richard is smack-dab in the middle of the age group.
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Linda, I believe he was the oldest of this years competitors.
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Perhaps. But this mini-thread was talking about chefs from all 4 seasons in how talented Richard was, and the Kid's comment was "he (richard) is one of the oldest chefs that has competed" - implying of all four seasons. So in that case, he's average-aged amongst all cheftestants. Not one of the oldest.
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Erik (Papa Souffle?) is 38, I believe.
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With the exception of Lisa, I say the finalists are all pretty talented, and it's difficult to gauge who would win. But the Top Chef finale is kind of like the World Series -- you sometimes don't have the most talented chef/team winning. So I think it should be up in the air. While I definitely don't want to see Lisa in the top three, she may very well be there.
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Here's my whimsical and nonsensical prediction... not based upon the numbers or feelings.
After watching episode 13, Finale Pt 1, the trailers show Richard proclaiming himself as the best chef and Lisa claiming she's going to pull it off. Nothing from Stephanie.
Based upon the previous shows where the confident contestants are the one's that lose... Also, since we know that Lisa can't win and Richard has a good chance, the twist is the "talkers/boasters" will lose and Stephanie will pull it off.
I know it's a stretch... :-)
Personally, my pick would be Richard.
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That works for me. :-)
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As someone who has followed Richard Blais since his Blais restaurant opening and subsequent work at various ATL restaurants, I was very surprised that he was selected to be on Top Chef. Not because of his lack of talent but rather because of how established he was.
He was an "Iron Chef America" challenger before Top Chef (he did lose) and his food has always been cutting edge. I was given the impression that Top Chef contestants were supposed to be the "up and coming type". I kind of see him as a polished chef already. It was not surprising to see him fare so well in most of the competition.
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I think other than the first season of TC (and a few in TC2), many of the cheftestants can be considered reasonably established. Many have run their own restaurants, or are Executive chefs at established restaurants (Malarkey! is back at Oceanaire in San Diego). So while TC1 might have been "up and coming", and after the debacle of TC2, Tom has said that he asked many of the guest judges from the first two seasons to recommend some people who might be interested in auditioning for the show. So they're bound to get more established people who are confident in what they can do in the kitchen.
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(Malarkey! is back at Oceanaire in San Diego).................
you must be a twop fan ;-)
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:::::snicker:::::: I read a weecap or two from there. ;-) You gotta admit, it's a perfect addition to his name.
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I love twop, and yes, Malarkey! was always a favorite.......
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Just tune in to "Hell's Kitchen" if you want to see less "established" chefs. ;-)
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It seems we were ALL wrong about Lisa being out in Episode 13...sadly. I really really hope its a battle between Stephanie and Richard, or I'll cry.
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I caught a promo for the Finale on Bravo last night that certainly left me curious. The editing showed Richard. Then, there was a cut to Gail. Although the promo included nothing that Richard -- or anyone -- said, Gail's response was something along the lines of "I can't believe you said that." Has anyone else seen this promo? Was there something else in the promo that I haven't mentioned that might give some clue as to what was said?
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Nope - but they are definitely giving the impression that the "shocker" is something he says. We'll see...
They do tend to give more and more info in previews on bravo as the week goes on (to get folks to watch their other shows i'm sure) so maybe more will come out. hhhhmmmmmmmm.........
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They can also be really misleading. Maybe the "shocker" is just that he announces his wife is pregnant on tv. Maybe he says he thinks Stephanie's food is better than his. They love to tell us to be shocked.
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Personally, I think the "shocker" is that Richard will badmouth Lisa at JT. Bravo is a bit better about the "shockers" than Hell's Kitchen where every episode is a "the most shocking yet."
Is it just me, or is the spoiler TC thread buried below somewhere? How come we have no more spoilers being posted? Is it no more fun to post spoilers as the mods made sure there was a specific thread for it as opposed to mixing the spoilers in with the episode discussions?
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Richard's wife is about to/gives birth during the finalé
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I was on the right track! Is he like "Excuse me, I have to go be on the phone with my wife, she's in labor"? That would be hilarious.
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Nice try, but the baby was born a week and a half ago on May 29th, so that's a no-go as the finale was filmed before that. ;-)
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Maybe they had a false alarm before the baby came.
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